At the end of the storage plan, cotton price trend or pressure

In March and April each year, on the eve of the planting of new cotton, various predictions and speculations in the cotton market emerge one after another. Recently, the news that the country raised its purchasing and storage prices and the lifting of the ban on the export of cotton by India has caused waves of weakness in the weak cotton market.

At present, only half a month has passed since the end of the 2011/2012 cotton purchase and storage plan. However, the market has already shown anxiety, fearing that the price of cotton, which was supported by the loss of storage channels in the next six months, will be under pressure again. However, analysts in the cotton spinning industry also believe that the price of cotton has gone out from the bottom, and it is likely to run in the 2 to 25,000 yuan/ton range in the future.

The purchasing and storage policy is about to enter the semi-annual window period On March 14th, the China Cotton Spot Price Index (CC Index 328) closed at 19,755 yuan/ton, which was a small increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In fact, the recent domestic cotton spot index has maintained a slight fluctuation of 3 to 10 yuan / ton. However, a Li surname cotton broker told reporters that the market reaction is far less calm than the index. At present, the enterprises that store cotton are increasingly anxious. On the one hand, the demand for cotton on the downstream is still dull. On the other hand, India has lifted the ban on cotton exports, and imported cotton with a relatively low price will continue to exert pressure on domestic cotton prices.

The broker had been dealing with cotton for many years. He also said that the 2011/2012 cotton purchase and storage plan is drawing to a close, which means that the cotton destocking in April-September this year will lose the support of storage and storage channels. The trend of cotton prices is very high. Hard to be optimistic.

The person’s concerns are not without reason. According to the statistics of China Reserve Cotton on March 14, the temporary purchase and storage of cotton this year has accumulated more than 2.87 million tons, which is equivalent to 40% of the total annual domestic cotton production. Industry insiders expect that according to the speed of recent sales, the final reserve will be very high. It may exceed 3 million tons, so it is called unlimited storage in the industry.

According to the 2011 cotton temporary storage plan, March 2011 will be the deadline for the 2011/2012 cotton purchase and storage plan. According to the March 1 this year, the eight ministries and commissions of the National Development and Reform Commission again jointly issued the 2012 annual plan for the temporary purchase and storage of cotton. The period of storage and storage has not changed, and it is still from September of that year to March of the following year. This means that the main digestive channels for domestic cotton will be closed in the next six months.

According to statistics, the current domestic cotton supply (if imported cotton is included) is at least 9 million tons, plus the reserve cotton is up to more than 13 million tons. The research report of Guotai Junan believes that due to the impact of the global economic downturn, domestic cotton consumption this year is likely to fall below 9 million tons. The pattern of supply exceeding demand determines that this year's cotton prices will not rise significantly. On the contrary, there are many opinions that the price of cotton after the end of the end of March will be under pressure due to the gloomy effect of downstream demand.

Low-priced foreign cotton will pressure cotton prices according to the 2012 annual cotton temporary storage plan issued by the eight ministries and commissions. The 2012 annual cotton temporary storage and storage price is 20,400 yuan/ton, which is 600 yuan/ton higher than the previous year. The preplan is also moderately relaxed. Storage range and level. From the perspective of cotton prices this year, the cotton price, which has been in a doldrums, has always fluctuated around the closing price. Therefore, most of the opinions tend to believe that the new closing price will stimulate the rebound of cotton prices. However, some people in the cotton spinning industry believe that the increase in cotton purchasing and storage costs means that the cost of the downstream textile industry will increase.

However, it is worth noting that as China's imports of cotton increase year by year, domestic cotton can be described as internal and external problems. At present, the price of cotton is mostly lower than that of national cotton at around 2,000 yuan/ton, and in particular the Indian cotton price advantage has once expanded to 3000-4000 yuan/ton. According to statistics, India's cotton accounted for 30.15% of China's imported cotton in 2011. The changeable cotton export policy is also becoming a new and uncertain factor affecting China's cotton price.

On March 5th, India suddenly announced the ban on cotton exports, which caused a direct impact on the global cotton importers. As a result, the main contract of the cotton ** on the ICE Intercontinental Exchange of the New York day reached a daily limit. However, just six days later, Indian Trade Minister Anand Sharma told the media that in order to protect the interests of cotton farmers and protect industrial and trade trade, India decided to withdraw the ban on cotton exports issued six days ago. This news means that in the depressed environment, China's cotton prices will continue to bear the pressure brought by the low-cost cotton impact in the coming months. Alibaba's textile analysis believes that with the completion of the purchase and storage, there is a certain degree of internal and external cotton prices may gather.

The senior cotton industry analyst Wang Qiang, chief editor of First Textile Network, pointed out in the mid-long-term report of the cotton spinning industry recently that the price of cotton has come out of the bottom, but the upward trend is relatively slow. In the next six months, the cotton market will change under the influence of three factors, such as relatively abundant supply, sluggish consumption growth, and the trend of policy-led markets. He believes that the domestic cotton ** price in the 20000-23000 yuan / ton range of the greatest probability of change. In the long run, with the increase in materialization costs and labor costs, the cotton price will remain at a level of more than 20,000 for a long time, and 25,000 yuan/ton will become the new value center for cotton prices in the next five years.