The low tide of domestic textile and clothing is waiting for the country to "make a move"

On September 14th, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China may announce an increase in the export rebate rate for some commodities in the near future. The tax rebate rate for export commodities, including furniture, shoes and toys, rose from 13%-15% to 17%. The new tax rebate policy may be implemented as soon as possible this month, and mainland media reports that the specific time depends on whether the trade information continues to be weak.

China Light Industry Arts & Crafts Import & Export Chamber of Commerce executives stated on September 6 that several chambers of commerce have indeed requested the mainland to raise the export tax rebate rate for some commodities recently. “The main reason is that exports are declining, and furniture, shoes and toys are all in It is expected that the tax rebate will be raised to 17%, but it has not yet been approved. If it is successful, the policy may indeed be introduced before October.

According to another source, according to the Customs Monthly Express, August's imports and exports still have not changed, and exports are still growing slightly. He did not disclose the specific value.

Some analysts said that the rumors that tax rebates are mainly in labor-intensive industries. If policy adjustments are honored, it means that the decision-making level is not only to stabilize foreign trade growth, but also to stabilize employment.

When the poor trading data of July was announced, it has already triggered speculation about whether the steady growth policy will be overweight. Mainland China's exports in July only increased by 1% compared with the same period of last year. Imports increased by 4.7%, and were 1.6% and 1.2% after seasonal adjustment.

The sharp deceleration of this export occurred during the traditional export season of Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve. The third quarter’s export is crucial to the “guaranteeing ten” of the annual growth of trade volume in mainland China.

According to information released by the China Customs, China's footwear exports totaled 25.69 billion U.S. dollars during the January-July period, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year; toy exports amounted to 5.604 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 6.82% year-on-year; and furniture exports amounted to 27.177 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase. 28.1%; total exports of clothing and clothing accessories was US$82.93 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%.

The aforementioned association said that although many categories of commodity exports still maintain single-digit growth, the number of exports has already declined, and the situation has worsened in the past two or three months.

Textiles and garments, footwear, toys, bags and furniture are typical examples of labor-intensive industries in mainland China. Taking textiles and garments as an example, 100 million people have been employed in the entire industrial chain from upstream cotton cultivation to downstream processing and manufacturing.

The last time the mainland substantially adjusted the export tax rebate rate was after the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the decision-making tier has dramatically raised the export tax rebate rate for a number of commodities, including mechanical and electrical products, textiles and apparel.

Whether the proposed increase in export tax rebate rate can be adopted by decision makers, one of the variables is the current financial situation. The overall downturn in the manufacturing and real estate markets led to a general reduction in local fiscal revenue. The fiscal and taxation system stated that the current VAT tax rate is 17%, but the actual collection rate is only 12%-13%, and the current average export tax rebate rate is also It is so difficult to raise the tax rebate.

Wang Qianjin, the first textile network analyst, said that the preliminary assessment of the textile and apparel industry tax rebate rate from 16% to 17% of the full tax rebate will increase industry profits by more than 100 billion ***, to alleviate the sluggish situation of the industry Certainly help, but the actual significance is still limited.

Huo Jianguo, dean of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the adjustment of export tax rebate can slightly ease the current pressure on export companies, but it is difficult to solve practical problems. He said that the current heavy burden on Chinese export companies, including raw material costs, tax burden, and bad investment credit environment, and other factors, "The government should consider targeted, from a larger perspective to consider the ease of business pressure, not just on the Do repairs."

He reminded them to be alert to the current situation of the Chinese manufacturing industry's gradually weakening competitiveness due to cost pressures. He said that the data in the first half of this year has already shown signs of a reduction in the share of Chinese goods in the international market.

Recently, sporting goods giant Adidas also announced that it will close its sole direct factory in mainland China this October. This factory in Suzhou has 160 workers. Adidas's main suppliers in China stated that Adidas' global orders are generally shrinking, with mainland cuts being particularly noticeable.

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