According to the forecast released by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) on February 26, Japan’s total trade with China (excluding Hong Kong) in 2009 will show its first year-on-year decline since 1998. The rapid development of economic and trade exchanges between China and Japan has been frustrated, and China’s exports to Japan will face a grim situation.
Exports to China are clearly defined
According to the report of the Common Network on February 27, the report of the Trade Promotion Association said that the total trade volume between China and Japan in 2008 reached 266.398 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.5% ​​over the previous year. However, affected by the international financial crisis, the trade volume between the two countries decreased by 5% and 10% respectively from November and December last year.
According to reports, due to the shrinking consumer market in Europe and the United States, China’s textile exports to European and American countries have fallen sharply. Affected by this, Japan's textile machinery exported to China and synthetic fibers for the production of clothing have decreased significantly in the fourth quarter. The export of Chinese electrical products, which is also the final market in Europe and the United States, has decreased, and the export of high-end semiconductor parts such as Japanese-made chips installed on electrical appliances has been reduced month by month since September. In addition, due to the slowdown in domestic consumption and the decline in prices in China, exports of high value-added steel for automobiles and home appliance production for Chinese consumers began to slow down in the fourth quarter.
However, the Japanese business community still has confidence in Japan’s exports to China in 2009. In 2008, Japan’s exports to China increased by 13.8% year-on-year, much higher than the growth rate of Japan’s total foreign exports of 8.9%. According to Japan Corporate News on February 27th, due to the increase in the number of large-scale construction projects in China last year, the export of large-scale construction machinery from Japanese companies to China has basically maintained growth. As Japan's foreign trade has a higher share of machinery (19.3%) and automobiles (14.5%), this will play an important role in the change in total trade with China in 2009.
China’s export situation to Japan is grim
According to the report, from the whole year of 2008, Japan’s imports from China were US$142.29 billion, an increase of 11.5% over the previous year. However, in the second two months of 2008, the export of Chinese products to Japan also showed a downward trend. Affected by the financial crisis, the decline in domestic demand in Japan will cause China's imports of clothing textiles to slow down. At the same time, due to the decline in international commodity prices, the total trade volume between the two countries will also decrease. In addition, due to the fact that Chinese food safety issues that are very sensitive to Japanese consumers have not been effectively improved, China's exports of food and agricultural products to Japan have been declining for two consecutive years.
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